Imagine being in the World Cup Final. The world championship for 2010 depends on you, the goalkeeper, saving a penalty. The ball is on the spot and it is about to be fired in your direction at 80 miles an hour. The referee’s whistle blows and the next fraction of a second could secure your place in history. What are you going to do?

As a world-class professional goalkeeper, would you choose to dive to the left or to the right? You could make a third choice, which is to do nothing and stay in the middle, although any fan of ‘Match of the day’ will tell you that very few keepers would stay in the middle.

It may be a surprise to know it is best to stay in the middle as this choice is three times more likely to save a penalty than diving one way or the other. Interestingly, the best chance of scoring is to also to knock the ball down the middle, as the goalkeeper is never there!

This information cannot be a secret. Also, goalkeepers and their coaches are highly motivated and trained, and have unlimited resources, so why do players usually ignore the one option which the one most likely to win the cup?

It could be to do with the way a player feels after letting in a goal. It never feels good, but it feels worse when you stay in the middle and do nothing. You fear looking foolish just standing there and looking like a rabbit caught in the car headlights. This is not at all good for the epitaph or indeed when negotiating the next transfer fee.

It may also be that you or the supporters do not believe the evidence. More important perhaps, is to make it look exciting for the fans watching a brave, athletic and heroic dive, even though it so rarely successful that everyone will remember that one great save.

The same pattern of ignoring the evidence can be seen when managing investments. Advisers and investors rarely stay still as often as they should. They jump from one investment to the next, even though a look at the evidence tells us that active management does not work and it rarely meets our investing goals.

Too many investors are conditioned to expect action when it would be much better to start with a robust game plan and then to ‘stand on the same spot’.

Less exciting - but far more profitable.

To read abut Michael in the news click here

Michael reading with the Lemurs at Blackpool Zoo, Thursday 10th June 2010

Not so-average primates check out Michael’s book.

Although not renowned for their spelling, these cheeky primates did not take too much encouragement to seek a second investment opinion. According to Wikipedia, Lemurs are just like us in that they use tools and understand basic arithmetic operations. It seems they also appreciate a good read.

The photo was taken at a seminar held at Blackpool Zoo’s Corporate Hospitality Suite. The event started well with a fascinating MAG display presented by Mark Bradshaw and Michael demonstrated how a run of good luck can be misinterpreted as investment skill. One lucky member of the audience won a fine bottle of wine.

The event was a lead up to the official launch of ‘How to Invest Better than the Average Primate’ which takes place in Manchester on the 8th July, although the book is already in its second print run.

The event was a great success thanks to a wonderful audience and of course the appearance of the very sociable Ringtailed Lemurs.